The green shading on this chart shows the growth of Eurodollars. The dotted line reflects the rate of growth.

The origin of the Eurodollar was effectively when the USD became the reserve currency for global trade at the end of World War 2.

Notice how the Eurodollar growth has flattened since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/9. The dotted line reflects the lower rate of growth.

Since 2008, the real GDP growth in the USA has been significantly lower than pre-GFC. The pink shading is the creation of bank reserves by the FED, which get swapped onto the balance sheets of US Banks. US Banks are then supposed to lend this “money” to customers. The problem is that everyone has become more risk averse since the GFC. Banks are lending less.

The bank reserves reflect US Fed Debt which everyone calls money printing. Money printing is what everyone is pointing to as the reason for inflation.

While prices of goods have increased dramatically, that is not inflation. Inflation is about money supply, not price increases. Despite increased US Debt and the creation of bank reserves, the supply of money has been restricted, which is why there is less growth in real GDP. The restricted growth is worldwide phenomena.

Price increases are due to a global supply chain shock! Increasing interest rates on debt will not magically increase the supply of oil.

Jeff Snider at Alhambra Investments is the guru on this subject.

https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/06/21/the-everything-data-z1-verdict-not-inflation-only-more-of-the-same/

Selling a business requires that you can attract a buyer who is willing to pay an agreeable price to acquire the future cashflows. The sale of a business is an exchange where the seller gets a lumpsum, discounted amount of the future cashflows, today. To get a higher lumpsum today you must prove to the buyer that there is more cashflow in the future or less risk.

The dilemma faced by the entrepreneur is that you can either extract the value from the business today or at some time in the future when you sell the business, but not both.

Extracting the value today means you live high off the business by taking out excess cash to fund your lifestyle or other business ventures. This relates to point three above. It is taking advantage of the tax benefits. The problem with extracting value today is that the businesses free cashflow is lower. A due diligence process by the seller will reveal an expense base that is higher than necessary.

Extracting value in the future when the business is sold requires discipline in the short term. That means running a tight ship. In this case the due diligence process will reveal higher free cashflows and therefore the sale of the business will attract a higher price.

Excess cash can be taken out the business through dividends and/or salary. That way a potential buyer can clearly interpret the free cashflow of the business and thus justify a price multiple based on profitability. Extracting cash from the business through ad hoc expenditure that takes advantage of tax benefits, only serves to muddy the water.

The Orwellian nature of the CCP is such that members operate out of fear. It is common knowledge that passing bad news up the hierarchical leadership structure can result in severe consequences. The implications for a central planning economy are dire if essential information does not make it back to the center.

A significant benefit of the free-market structure is the feedback loop from the dynamics of supply and demand and the impact on setting prices. For this feedback loop to work efficiently, there needs to be information transparency of the supply capacity and demand requirements. The system doesn't work perfectly all the time. However, most of the time, it functions satisfactorily.

Another characteristic of the free-market system is that businesses that cannot meet the market's requirements are allowed to fail, and capital is directed elsewhere. Capital is often poorly allocated in a central planning structure because businesses are not subject to free-market forces.

This week on the Rebal Capitalist Podcast, hosted by George Gammon, a hypothesis was presented by his guest, Jason Burack. Burack suggested that the lockdown in China has nothing to do with Covid. The reason for the lockdown is that China is suffering from food shortages. Areas of China have suffered from significant crop failures, and their food imports have been largely cut off due to the Russia / Ukraine war.

The lockdowns are a tactic to reduce demand!

This is an example of what happens when governments have too much power and try to control all levers of the economy. The system is way too complicated to be controlled from the center. Small failures are an essential feedback mechanism. The alternative is a colossal failure.

The joy and anticipation of this great journey will soon overtake the anxiety of what you are leaving behind.

A journey starts with knowing that it will come to an end. The destination gives our journey direction, but it does not define the path we take each day.

The path is determined by the choices we make in the moment. Sometimes the choice will be obvious and the path certain. At times the path will be less clear, and we will have to trust our instinct.

A journey is made great not by reaching the destination but by the discoveries on the route. We may discover a treasure among the hills or on the beaches. An artifact washed up by the sea or a fleeting glimpse of a breaching whale.

This is an invitation to my fellow travelers to connect with that part of themselves that desires to journey. I invite you to travel to that mystical place where you may find a piece of yourself that hides beneath the layers that shield you from your everyday world. Be open to a discovery that may come from within you.

The mystery is not knowing what you may discover. There may be fear for what is unknown and, on the other side, joy for what you find. Being open to discovery may reveal a small truth about yourself. It might be a realisation that you are more capable than you think. Or that you have the strength to overcome the difficulty. Perhaps a discovery of some unknown longing that your younger self abandoned.

The remote beauty of an open beach, with hardly a footprint of another being, may remind you that your path through life is unique, and there are no footprints to follow. Yet, the heavy breath of a nearby runner is a reminder that paths overlap, and there is a connection with fellow travelers.

The steep climbs of the rugged seaside cliffs may remind you of the deep struggles of life. Knowing that on the other side is the reward of a majestic view and the realisation that another struggle is inevitable.

It is in the struggle that one discovers the gifts of the journey. It is not about getting to the end of the day's run; it is about running to the end of the day. That is the difference between destination and journey.

I discovered that I had several tensions in my thinking. That is a polite way of saying that my thinking was inconsistent. I became irritated at the statements because I thought they were trying to trick me. On reflection, my irritation was misguided. It wasn’t the statements; it was me. It was my inconsistency that was irritating me.

Most people don’t care about the inconsistency in their thinking. Mostly, people are not even aware of their inconsistency. I am very conscious of being consistent in my thinking, but I often discover that I am not.

Being a consistent writer has helped me uncover my inconsistent thinking. Writing my thoughts on paper and presenting them to thousands of readers has been a sure-fire way to get feedback on my inconsistent thinking.

The problem with thinking is that it is primarily an internal process. It is a conversation that goes on in our heads.

Have you ever noticed yourself not completing a thought? Or thoughts arising and interrupting other thoughts. I like to think that I have some control over my thinking, but often that is not the case. Having a thinking process when you are problem-solving can be very helpful.

Here is a list of things to try when you have to think through a problem:

1. Don’t try and think it through late at night when you are tired. First thing in the morning is the best time.

2. Think with a partner. Think out aloud. Speak the words that you are thinking and complete your thoughts.

3. Trusting that your partner won’t belittle your thinking and holding what you say in confidence is essential. Choose the right person!

4. Try writing your thoughts about the problem and the potential solutions. Write as if someone else is going to read it. You will be forced not to take shortcuts in your thinking.

5. Once you have spoken or written the words, leave the problem for a while. Come back to it later, you will be surprised at your clarity when you see the problem the second time around.

Entrepreneurs are generally good at showcasing their products. Samples and demonstrations are aplenty. However, financial plans are often lacking. The entrepreneurs often end their presentation by asking for an investment for a percentage of ownership.

Some basic cross multiplication maths can quickly reveal a business valuation. If an entrepreneur offers 20% equity for $250,000, that implies a business valuation of $1.25 million.

Any investor will likely want some basic sales and profitability numbers based on historical trade or a pilot project.

There are three pieces of essential data that are required. They are the monthly fixed expenses, the gross profit margin, and the potential monthly sales volume. The average selling price can be easily derived from this data, but it is always good to know the average selling price off the top of your head.

Here are some break-even “income statement gymnastics” that will give any investor piece of mind that you understand the financial basics of your business.

1. Ave Selling Price (SP) – Ave Cost Price (CP) = Margin

2. COS includes all variable expenses

3. EXP includes all fixed expenses

4. @Break even Gp = Fixed expenses (Exp)

5. Volume (VOL) = Gp / Margin

6. Sales = Vol x SP

7. COS = Vol x CP

8. GP = Vol x Margin

9. Gp – Exp = Pbt

10. Margin / Ave SP x 100 = GP%

11. Sales = Gp / Gp%

Once an entrepreneur understands the breakeven point of their business, different profitability scenarios can be extrapolated. Insert a profit target into Pbt and add the expenses to get Gp. Divide Gp by Margin to get Volume (Formula 5). Use Formula 6 to calculate Sales.

Here are some insights and reflections:

1. The longer you take to cut the umbilical cord of being an employee, the harder it is. As an employee, you build up debt and overheads that make the perceived risk of breaking away very hard over time.

2. Start a side hustle that you nurture and build in your own time before you cut the cord.

3. Save enough money to level up by educating yourself. The energy shift can propel you into a new way of thinking that reveals new opportunities. Once upon a time, a full-time MBA could do that.

4. Finding your first customer is an incredibly liberating feeling. It also helps you realise that if you can find one customer, you can find a second.

5. Being a solopreneur does not mean you have to work alone. Doing a project with a friend who brings different but complementary skills is very rewarding.

6. While delivering a service that pays the bills, building a proprietary product that you sell independent of your service offering is essential. A software product is a holy grail. At least write a book, create a course, or develop a model that others can implement on your behalf.

7. At first, there is a temptation to "do anything" to not miss out on opportunities. In hindsight, the faster you can specialise, the better. Focus on that one thing where you can become the guru.

8. The freedom of a solopreneur is fantastic but making yourself answerable to someone brings focus and urgency. It helps if that someone is not emotionally attached to you or your business. Think MENTOR!

9. Identify a problem and sell a solution. Exploit the customers' pain in your marketing and an offer to take that pain away with your product or service.

10. Get started and be consistent!

Here are 5 insights that I have uncovered from #runueverday that help me navigate other parts of my life:

Time: Your sense of time can be distorted depending on your state of mind. If you run at 6min/km, it will take 1 hour to run 10 km. On some days, that hour can feel like 10 minutes. On other days it can feel like a 2-hour slog. Time gets distorted depending on your state of flow. A state of flow can make a process feel effortless. Flow comes from consistent practice where time melts away and is of little consequence.

Health: Fitness is a proxy for health. It is a monumental effort to get it back when you lose it. There are no shortcuts. The time and effort to maintain it is a very small price to pay when you have it. The problem is that you only learn this once you lose it. Consistently doing something every day is a minimal cost with a considerable reward.

Wealth: A great measure of wealth is the amount of control you have over how you spend your time. Being selfish and allocating a piece of your time every day to something that matters only to you is the best gift you can give yourself. The challenge then becomes to increase that time allocation as much as possible. The more time you can allocate to yourself, the more your wealth will increase.

Ego: Mimicry is an evolutionary trait in many species. Humans are especially good at it. We copy others and then signal our success and virtue like trophies on the mantle. Running every day for 1,000 days is a trophy on my mantle. This trophy validates my ego, and I like to shine it. The problem is having too many trophies and spending too much time shining them. There must be a balance between earning trophies and shining trophies. This requires constant personal reflection.

Recovery: Slowing down is where the magic happens, but my ego disagrees. My ego wants to run further and faster. My mind and body often want to go slower. Stepping away, taking a break, slowing down makes space for new thinking and different perspectives. I always get faster after I go slow. My ego tells me that going slow is being lazy. My ego cannot see past the shining trophies. I need to constantly remind myself that navigating life often happens while stopped at a garage to refuel.

As I reflect on these lessons, I realise that there is much more to say on each one. I also realise that they are interconnected, as life is. Like a spider’s web, pulling one strand vibrates in the others.

I’m reflecting on my experience of counting days. Saying it like that sounds strange. Today is day 1,141 since I started counting. Today is not a milestone, or a special day. There is nothing about it that feels like a big achievement. It is just another day. It’s Friday. I ran 12km with Bruce.

We had a conversation about how I like to cook chicken stir-fry wraps. We decided not to walk at the top of the hills and run non-stop. We ran slower than yesterday. We had coffee afterwards. It was just another day in the grind of wanting to be better.

Being better is about getting stronger, faster, fitter, leaner, healthier, and somehow trying to hold back the ever-rising tide of ageing. What I took for granted in my twenties is now front of my mind every day and is part of my motivation for #runeveryday. Recording a run in my spreadsheet is how I count the days. It is how I see each one for what it is—another day, stacked up on top of yesterday and ready to take the load of tomorrow.

Counting the days is like seeing each one and not allowing it to pass without being noticed. This morning, at the start of our run, I noticed that the days are already getting shorter. There is less light on the horizon at half-past five. The march towards running with a headlamp on a cold winter’s morning flashed through my mind, and I felt a twinge of sadness. That flash was fleeting because today is bright and warm. As we set off, the joy of counting another day returned.

Counting days and “seeing” each one acts as a placeholder. A placeholder that anchors the day in what might normally be a string for forgettable days, buried in a series of weeks that by next month will be inaccessible to my random-access memory. Even finding it in the hard drive might prove difficult, especially when they all look the same. The placeholder of counting a run acts as a memory tag.

Looking back on the days is like visiting an old friend. “Remember on that day we ran in the rain. And that one, we got lost on that new trail route. Oh, wow, that day I ran a mile with a sprained ankle.”

The cliché of “making each day count” seems so trite, yet having the experience of counting days, where each day counts towards something bigger than itself, is oddly rewarding. It feels like a contribution towards something more significant than I can understand.

Today was another day in the grind, and I am embracing it as being as important as any other day. Without today, tomorrow can’t happen, and I want tomorrow to happen.

As I stood beside the stove, scoffing down my stack of sweetness, my wife asked why I don't sit down and enjoy my pancakes in comfort. I pondered this for a moment as I searched through my fog for a reasonable answer.

A knife is required to skim some Butro from the tub and smear it on the pancake. A dollop of syrup and then fold the pancake in your fingers as if to catch the sweet smoothness inside. Eat quickly by lowering your mouth and raising the warm gooey joy so you can stuff it in before the syrup oozes out.

It occurs to me that the 1,175 calories that I burnt this morning while grinding up Orange Road are quickly being replenished. Fortunately, a regular weekday morning run does not require any mental exertion, so a case of brain fog doesn’t impact a morning run. Today might be a case for more running and less thinking. Mind you, every day would be like that if it weren't for having to pay the bills. The most thinking that I did on my Tyrone Harriers - Greenside running circuit this morning was scheme about when next I would take a trip out to Cradle Moon for a trail run. How messed up is that? While I am running, I am thinking about running somewhere else. It's good that one run doesn't get jealous of another run.

I do ask myself, what am I running from? Despite much enquiry on the subject, I don't have an answer. I am chalking that question up to being a cliché. Any serious runner will tell you that the more you run, the more you want to run. I do it for the drugs! I'm an organic junkie.

The word endorphin is a blend of morphine and endogenous. Effectively it's morphine that is produced by the body. It reduces pain perception and is the source of a "runner high".

Anandamide is a cannabis-like substance known as the "bliss molecule" naturally produced by the body while doing something energetic like running.

Phenylethylamine (PEA) is a molecule produced in the brain after just half an hour of running and is like amphetamines in terms of causing euphoria. PEA triggers the body to release dopamine. That is the warm and fuzzy after run reward. Don’t mistake it for the post run caffeine jolt.

I had a full dose of organic drugs this morning. The pancakes with syrup were my sugar dose. I guess that is a high of another kind. As my brain fog lifted, I replied to my wife, “I want to be fully emersed in my pancake eating experience, and if I sit down, I feel like I will be distracted by some addictive device that I would rather avoid. I prefer natural addictions”.

The concept of diminishing returns means that improvements appear to reduce despite more effort. Some might say, “you get less bang for your buck”. This is an ever-present fear for me. It is closely linked to getting older and not being good enough. Yes, there is lots of Work behind these stories in my head, but we all have our own story that we tell ourselves.

I am working on letting go of last year and re-imagining what I can achieve this year. There is no need for a grand “New Year Resolution”. There is only what I can do now and today. Then, stack together a whole string of todays.

I learned last year that I am more capable than I believed I was. I had to test my limits and get out of my comfort zone to learn that. In doing so, I created a new and bigger comfort zone. Part of letting go of last year’s achievements means embracing the fear of not being able to live up to the standard that I set myself.

So here are my conclusions to Thoughts on the Run - Part 2: Get an early win to create momentum, celebrate soon and often, build, and participate in community, bring others along and don’t take yourself seriously. In the end, nothing matters and being present is all there is. Yesterday is done; tomorrow may not come. Do it now. There I was talking about running. It appears that running is just a metaphor for life.

The first thing to recognise is that the event in March 2020 that caused the spike in bank assets values is not connected to lockdowns or COVID. The source is a US Dollar liquidity shortage which caused the mini equity market crash in March 2020. This coincided precisely with the start of the Covid pandemic.

It turns out that South African commercial banks are holding large amounts of SA Treasuries. That is short term government debt—more on this in tomorrow’s Just in Time article.

At the same time as the mini equity crash in March 2020, the bond market was also suffering the seismic effects of the US Dollar shortage. The knock-on effect of this mini crash showed up as sudden steeping of the bond yield curve. That is, short-term yields declining and long-term yields increasing.

A decline in bond yields increases the value of the bond. Since the banks are invested in Treasuries which are at the short end of the yield curve, all the banks experienced an increase in the value of their bond holdings. Since March 2020, short term yields have remained lower than usual. Hence, bank total assets values have not returned to their previous levels.

Notice how the growth in total assets across the "Big 4" banks appears to be the same. The slope of the curves is very similar. This tells the story that they are all the same. The banks are simply dressed in different colours. The bank doing things differently is the one at the bottom of the chart.

This graph is an example of the representation of the reserve bank data. The trend in the data is clear. Banks are reducing their exposure to residential mortgages. In other words, banks are providing less debt funding to those who want to buy residential property. There is one exception, that is Investec. However, Investec’s customers are substantially more affluent than the average customer of the other banks.

Why would banks reduce their exposure to the residential property market?

One reason may be that property values have not grown as they did in the early 2000s. Less growth in property values would result in less debt lending. Typically, an expansion in asset value leads to more lending against the increased value of the asset.

Another reason is the “expropriation without compensation” narrative. While this is a more recent occurrence, reducing their risk if EWC becomes more real would make sense.

Notice the “glitch” or decline in early 2020. Lockdowns reduced the number of property transactions and thus resulted in fewer mortgages being registered. Standard Bank and ABSA have recovered. FNB has declined further.

The knock-on effect of this declining trend in mortgage lending is cause for concern. Many entrepreneurs use the mortgage on their assets as funding for their businesses. The implications are less economic growth and employment in the SME business sector.

Stay tuned as we explore the Reserve Banks data for more insights.

While working for the Tribune in 1944 Orwell wrote, “Do remember that dishonesty and cowardice always have to be paid for. Do not imagine that for years on end you can make yourself the boot-licking propogandist of the soviet regime, or any other regime, and then suddenly return to honesty and reason”.

Who is the boot-licking propogandist of today?

There is no doubt that the words propaganda and COVID are synonymous. The response to COVID by authorities has been nothing short of a boot stamping on a human face.

There are examples from around the world of how governments have destroyed lives and caused more harm under the guise of pursuing "public interest". This example from Australia demonstrates the totalitarian human behaviour that Orwell despised so much. All the ingredients of Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four book are present here.

The most concerning element is that the corporate media are the biggest propaganda sources. Propaganda is as much about what is not said as what is said. Corporate media are not reporting the example from Australia. These demonstrations of authoritarian face stomping are reported by YouTube podcasters who have limited reach.

Why is there not a worldwide outcry against this type of behaviour? Two reasons come to mind. Firstly, governments worldwide are engaged in somewhat similar behaviour and won't speak out for fear of being called out themselves. Sovereignty is put forward to support this argument. Secondly, the corporate media is the boot-licking propagandist of the government.

The corporate media is looking the other way. As the saying goes, "big business never saw a government that it didn't like".

Unfortunately, even the seemingly independent social media companies are eating at the propaganda table. Conversations about COVID are regularly removed from YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter under the auspices of "fake of misleading information".

Don't be surprised if YouTube removes the video about Hayley Hodgson from Darwin being locked up in a Covid camp for two weeks, even though she never had Covid. The boot doesn't discriminate.

This poses an obvious problem. Solving this problem requires compromise. It doesn’t necessarily mean that you must take your wife mountain biking or force your hubby to have a facial with you.

It appears that the Vasopressin response in men can be triggered with a simple case of problem-solving. It works especially well when a man can solve a problem for a woman and relieve her of stress in the process. That sounds like such a stereotype.

An important qualification may be required right about now. Having a man solve a problem for his wife does not look like a to-do list of chores around the house. Although, any wise man should know that doing those chores before being asked can result in great rewards.

The problem solving, Vasopressin trigger in men comes from a combined effort of overcoming a challenging situation or solving an issue that could result in a rewarding outcome or reduce pain and stress. A great example is planning a trip, especially if there are complex logistics and several moving parts. Deciding which flights, trains, and busses to take to get to a beautiful destination and be rewarded with a cocktail on the beach might be one example.

Adam Lane Smith talks about a counterintuitive and controversial element of male and female bonding. Smith suggests that the female archetype of having everything in life sorted and not needing to rely on a man is the exact opposite of what is required to form a bonding relationship. The strong independent type might be an attractive attribute in the world of Tinder and hook-up culture but does not translate into fertile ground for a strong and binding relationship.

There is a truth here that I suspect we all know. Vulnerability is an attractive characteristic. It implies trust and openness. It also presents an opportunity for bonding and building a stronger relationship.

Gordon Forbes is probably more well known as an author. His book, A Handful of Summers, will have you giggling from beginning to end. It is a memoir of Forbes’s adventures on the tennis circuits of the world.

Forbes’s second book, Too Soon to Panic, is equally as hilarious as his first. I think the title is such a classic. Forbes tells the story of the pair playing a tennis match where it was quite clear that they would be on the losing end. At the most apt point in the match, Segal turned to Forbes and, in his acerbic and irreverent manner told him that “it was too soon to panic”.

To understand what it means for it to be “too soon to panic”, one must know that Abe Segal was a happy go lucky character who was never prone to panic. Segal uses the phrase as if panic was a solution to their problem, but not a solution that should be applied yet.

Ever since I first read the story, I have often thought about what criteria must be met for it to be okay to panic. In other words, when is it too soon, and when is it the right time?

The subject of panic seems to be relevant to South Africans at the moment. The world has hit the panic button as far as South Africa is concerned. We had the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response & Innovation (CERI) proclaim to the world that he/his team had discovered a new variant of COVID. I suspect his ego was looking for a dose of notoriety for some well-done research.

Instead, what happened? The world went into full-blown panic mode. South Africa got shut out by the rest of the world as if it was the source of nuclear fallout. Of course, the new variant had already been around the world before it landed on South Africa’s shores. But that is an inconvenient excuse not to panic right away.

Our President was pretty angry the other night at the totalitarian type of response by the rest of the world. It reminds me of how angry most South Africans were a year ago when our President applied the same kind of totalitarian behaviour and closed the beaches for the summer holidays. Funny that. Not so nice to feel powerless and be on the receiving end.

Unfortunately, Gordon Forbes sadly died from Covid in December 2020. I think his friend and tennis partner, Abe Segal, would have had the best advice for the world, and it would have been, IT IS TOO SOON TO PANIC.

Having lived in Johannesburg for nearly 5 decades, I qualify as a Joburger. However, I think there are a few more criteria that one must have to qualify as a Joburger.

The Capetonians have the mountain- a beautiful geographic feature that defines so much of their lifestyle. Joburgers have Northcliff hill. Hardly a comparison. But, Joburgers have something else that Capetonians don’t have. Joburgers have an attitude to life that is unique.

Capetonians can rely on the beauty of their surroundings to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to being attractive. What the Capetonians have can easily be portrayed in a travel brochure. What Joburgers have is an intangible quality that can never be conveyed in a glossy photograph.

When I think of the average Joburger, the following list describes the characteristics that come to mind, let’s call them qualifying criteria.

1. Joburgers are warm, friendly, inclusive folk who are always quick to invite an outsider to a braai.

2. Joburgers know that the city is a dump, and if we don’t have a sparkling personality, the world will forget that we exist.

3. Joburgers know that a breakfast outing is normally at a restaurant that looks onto a carpark. Therefore, we might as well drive nice cars so we can enjoy the view while we eat our eggs.

4. Joburgers live behind the high walls and big security gates, after all there is no view to block out. But when you are invited in behind the walls, you will always find a warm heart and a cold beer.

5. Joburgers have a “can do” attitude that can easily be mistaken for a F! you attitude.

6. Joburgers ask for forgiveness but never permission.

7. Joburgers are made up of all types, and they are a highly cosmopolitan group.

It is important to note that there are no barriers to entry to become a Joburger; all are welcome. This is no exclusive group that requires permission for entry. Joburgers simply get on with stuff. They take life on at full speed. Being a Joburger is an attitude to life. It is the type of attitude that says, “even if the city is a dump, we are going to run there anyway, just like we own the place”.

Here is an example. Having children. The effort that goes into raising kids is monumental. Where is the pleasure? It shows up in many ways. We experience the joy of kids in our unique way, and the pleasure is sprinkled amongst the pain. It's also an evolutionary trait that is baked into the human species.

Paul Bloom recently published a book called "The Sweet Spot", in which he explores the contrast between pleasure and pain.

Why would someone run Comrades? I am having this conversation with myself. I see mountains of pain. What is the payoff? Where is the pleasure? It might just be that completing it is a meaningful endeavour. Completing Comrades also sends a signal to others about one's ability as a runner. For many, it is a rite of passage. For those lucky enough to have a genetic gift, the race might be enjoyable.

All good stories follow a well-known formula. The formula is Joseph Campbell's "Heros Journey".

The Heros Journey is about the descent into darkness. The darkness represents the hard and trying times of overcoming something difficult. Early morning training in the dead of winter in preparation for Comrades is an anecdote for the descent into darkness. Add to that some other life struggle that has been holding you back for years, and you have the making of a blockbuster.

While in the depths of darkness, there must be a revelation. The hero/heroine discovers a hidden truth about themselves. This truth might be the self-belief that has been missing their whole life. Self-belief is the catalyst to pushing on and making it to the start line of Comrades. Finishing the race is the reward and the ascent out of the darkness.

Crossing the finish line is like returning home after a long journey of self-discovery. Everyone is waiting and cheering on the hero.

I ran Comrades in 1999 and 2000. It feels like a lifetime ago, and a voice in the back of my head is calling me to do it again. I distinctly remember the pain of the last 30km - both mental anguish and physical pain. But in the last few kilometres, all the pain and anguish disappeared. The close proximity of the finish line is better than any synthetic pain killer.

The goosebumps and adrenaline rush almost seemed worth the pain. Paul Bloom is on to something. There is a sweet spot. It is a balance between pain and pleasure, and like most things in life, we need to find that sweet spot for ourselves.

We can’t even agree on the basic definition of what it means to deliver a hybrid executive education course.

One definition of a hybrid education course is to have participants sitting in a classroom experiencing the live lecture while others watch online via camera. Here the definition of hybrid is live vs camera.

Another definition of hybrid is a combination of asynchronous and synchronous content delivery. Those words are the jargon of academic snobbery. Think of asynchronous as not requiring an in-person live human to lead the learning process. Asynchronous is about video content, readings, case studies, and exercises which students complete in their own time. Synchronous is live lectures. Synchronous can happen online or in person.

Covid lockdowns resulted in some innovative combinations of asynchronous and synchronous content creation. Unfortunately, the return to in-person live lectures has seen a regression to a talking head.

University administrators cannot get their minds around the concept of build once, sell twice. Administrators are stuck in a one-dimensional world where they pay per word. That means a lecturer must return tomorrow and repeat the same lecture from yesterday, just to a different audience.

In the last month, I delivered executive education programmes at two different business schools where the delivery mechanism was live and on camera. Here are two insights that I have discovered about integrating the learning experience for both audiences:

1. Use two computers to help with delivery. One computer runs the camera and chat/sound interaction with the online audience. A second computer runs the learning content of slides, spreadsheets, and other teaching material. In a perfect world there will be an assistant to manage the chat function with online students. The separation of these two functions means that the lecturer is not distracted by operating technology and can focus on delivery.

2. Create name tents for live and online students. As a lecturer it is easy to forget that the online students are there. Talking to those in the classroom becomes the default. Adding name tents for online students helps bring their presence into the lecture room. The lecturer can then call on those names to involve them in discussions without standing over a laptop screen and finding the names.

All my teaching content is available in YouTube videos. My new standard operating procedure is to direct students to that content. The result is less one-way teaching and more two-way conversations. This is my small way of driving a hybrid teaching model. By all accounts, students much prefer it.

I have learned some things about myself and the world along the way. This is what I’ve learnt:

1. Streak running looks much harder than it is. A streak is just a series of 1 day runs. If you change your perspective to only think of tomorrows run, it is a piece of cake. When you start getting too far ahead of yourself and make up stories about how tired you will feel at the end of the week, that is when it gets hard. That is true for anything in life. Stress comes from the stories about the future that we make up in our heads. Most of the time, those stories never come true.

2. It is easier to break an agreement with yourself than with another person. There are few external consequences for breaking such an agreement. If the agreements that you make are important to you then making an agreement to run with a friend makes running every day easier. Conversation makes the distance feel shorter, and the time passes faster. That is especially important when doing big mileage and training for an event.

3. The consistency of running every day creates a stronger connection between mind and body. It also makes the mind and the body more resilient. The regular daily dose of Dopamine helps regulate mood, sleep, and appetite. It makes life easier and more pleasurable.

4. The compound effect of running every day is remarkable. It is hard to explain. It needs to be felt. Like any compound curve, it takes time; it is hard at first. Then, like turning a switch on, energy, strength and speed become regular allies. Running becomes a craving and life is beautiful.

My mojo is #runeveryday and writing the Just in Time articles. I lost my mojo two weeks ago. My battery has been flat, and #runeveryday had been a battle.

Despite losing my mojo, I forced myself to keep to my routine. Keeping a routine might be another one of those superpowers to add to the list.

It’s that time of year. The finish line is close, December is around the corner, but there is still a hard push to get there. Burnout is common at this time of year. Here are some tips and tricks to help keep you on track while your mojo goes AWOL:

1. Be kind to yourself. For some, this is not so obvious. Dial things back. Give yourself permission to slow down and take a breath. Take a load off. For me, this looks like running the 10km route on a Monday instead of the 15km route. An extra coffee afterwards and some banter with the crew before charging off to get on with the day.

2. Dose up on the supplements. I take an extra Slowmag. Don’t forget the protein shake and sugar-free vitamin C supplement. Gotta keep the body fuelled.

3. Here is one that will make most guys want to run away. Acknowledge that your mojo had done a disappearing act. My regular Tuesday circle is with a group of men who know me inside out. I get to talk about that stuff that most men want to avoid. Verbalising the emotion that goes with feeling off my game helps me get past the stories that I make up in my head. The stories in my head always make the problem feel worse than it is. Having someone else call me on my bullshit also helps to keep my internal victim under control.

The worst thing for me to do is to STOP. That means completely losing momentum. Momentum is a beautiful thing. It is forward motion, even if it is slower than usual. KEEP GOING!

The feeling of getting my mojo back is fantastic! Once again, I can feel the dopamine rush after a good run. It makes the coffee taste better, and the colour of the Jacaranda trees look brighter.

David Beckham is best known for taking free kicks from just outside the penalty area. Beckham crafted the skill of curving the ball around a wall of opposing players and into the top corner of the goal.

In Beckham's words, he practised this kick hundreds of thousands of times at his local park. He would aim at the wire mesh covering a small window of a community hut.

When his dad came home from work, he would get him to stand in the way of the goals to practice curving the ball around him.

Even the sun going down didn't deter him. He used the light from the community hut window as the target, and he practised kicking in the dark. He could do it with his eyes closed.

Beckham was not allowed to play with a football in the house at home. That didn't stop him. He used his sisters "Care Bears" as footballs and kept practising. Some might say that his behaviour was somewhat obsessive. However, there is little doubt that Beckham’s consistency turned him into one of the best.

Most people give up! Consistency requires dedication, and it requires dedication to something that you may not be good at for a long time. The ego doesn't like that. The ego wants to be seen. The ago wants affirmation. Affirmation is a form of praise, and praise can be in short supply when you suck at something, especially when you are toiling away in the dark.

My experience of the compound benefit of consistently doing something every day is through running. I am days away from three years of #runeveryday. I have experienced health and lifestyle benefits that I could not have imagined three years ago. These benefits include 15 kg of weight loss, more energy and strong resistance to the usual seasonal hay fever and sniffles. I've also learnt that I am way stronger and more capable as a runner than I ever thought I could be. There is a certain amount of confidence that comes from that. The problem is that we don't know what we don't know. We don't know what the benefit is likely to be from a commitment to consistency.

It isn't easy to do the trade-off calculation without knowing the benefit. A commitment to consistency at one thing often requires one to say no to something else. It feels easier to say no to something that looks like hard work at the start. Especially if you don’t know or can’t imagine the upside.

To overcome the daily resistance of having to choose to be consistent, it is better to make a choice once. A very successful YouTuber named Ali Abdul said, "if you make a YouTube video every day for two years, it will change your life." You don't want to be wrestling with yourself every day about making a YouTube video. Rather make the choice once then do it, just like David Beckham did.

In recent times Twitter has become the place for online writers to grow their audience. The common method is through regular thread posts that are the latest form of blogging. Many successful Twitter writers started out curating other people’s material and provided links and easy access to excellent content. Navalmanack.com is a great example. @EricJorgenson curated the work of @Naval. If you haven’t read this work, a beautiful gift about how to build wealth awaits you.

The online writing community is fantastic at advising on how to build an audience. Twitter threads with multi-step processes. I read them and think, “yes, I should do that.” Then I sit back and realise that I can’t be bothered. I just write. It clears my head. I learn stuff when I write, and I resolve conundrums that trouble me because writing helps me complete my thoughts. Then when I publish what I write, I get fantastic feedback. My process is simple, write, publish, repeat. Every time I hit the publish button, I get a shot of Dopamine. That’s the reward.

If you have discovered those things, you can’t be bothered with, I’d love to hear from you. Name it and feel how liberating it is to let it go.

By the way, the last thing my grandfather said was, “watch how far I kick this bucket!”

A superstition is a belief or practise that is irrational and is attributed to magic. Superstitions are often based on fear and are attributed to practises surrounding astrology, fortune-telling, spirits, and religion.

In Cricket, batters fear being dismissed on the score of 111.

The source of the superstition as it relates to Lord Nelson is that he lost an arm and an eye in various battles. A rumour started that he had lost a leg too, but this is untrue. The combination of one eye, one arm and one leg made the triple one combination. In Cricket, the three stumps that make up the wickets look like 1 1 1. The link appears tenuous.

The more plausible source of the superstition is a cricket team from Nelson that played first-class Cricket in New Zealand. The cricket side was dismissed for 111 runs in their first and last innings in the league.

Here is an interesting superstitious number combination that relates to South Africa. On the 11th November 2011, in a test match between Australia and South Africa, at 11:11, South Africa required 111 runs to win. The scoreboard read 11:11 11/11/11.

It seems that cricketers have a propensity for superstition.

Steve Waugh, the highly successful Australian captain, kept a red handkerchief in his pocket. It was given to him by his grandmother, and he believed that it brought him luck.

Rahul Dravid, an Indian batter, always put his right thigh pad on first when preparing to bat.

Sachin Tendulkar, on the other hand (or leg), would put his left pad on first.

Lasith Malinga, the Sri Lankan fast bowler, was known for kissing the ball before each delivery. In times of Covid, that would prompt public health officials to ban Cricket as being too dangerous. The risk of infecting other players would be horrendous – trust the science.

Our home-grown cricketing star, Kevin McKenzie, was superstitious about standing on white lines, including the batting crease. That is awkward for a batter. His teammates once taped his bat to the ceiling of the changing room. He scored century the next day. This allegedly prompted a superstitious ritual where he would tape his bat to the ceiling every night before an innings.

Fear is a funny thing. It prompts us, humans, to behave irrationally. Steve Waugh believed that he wouldn’t be successful without his red hankie in his pocket. The behaviour is self-reinforcing. If that is what it takes, then go for it. If we went around pointing out everyone’s irrationality, then we would have time to go to church.

I finished high school in 1990. We were supposed to have a 30-year reunion last year, but of course, that didn’t happen. I was in two minds about going, so it didn’t bother me much that it got cancelled. So why did I attend last night? Simple, the event was taking place five minutes away from where I live.

I’ve discovered that my propensity to engage socially is inversely proportional to the logistical effort required to attend.

A few things are going on here. I’m an introvert, and I’d rather not make small talk conversation. I pictured the 30-year reunion being an evening of small talk, hence my resistance. Small talk conversation is part of the logistical effort. Since getting to the function was so easy, I decided that the logistical effort burden was sufficiently reduced, and therefore I would attend. I’m glad I did.

A handful of men from my year attended—all noticeably older, greyer, and several kilos heavier. Of course, I fit into all these categories too. The dominant theme of the conversations was about our children. We had side conversations about work, fishing, sporting injuries, exercise, and how many old boys had emigrated. In general, there was a large dose of humility amongst the men, which resonates with the ethos of the high school we all attended. High humility reduces the logistical effort required to engage.

I met up with a lifelong friend who I hadn’t seen for a while. We attended primary school, high school, and university together, and he was the best man at my wedding. Life is such that despite our long friendship we find ourselves circling the same sun but just slightly out of sync. That is enough in this busy world that we hardly see each other. 

My friend told me about a car accident that he had been in a year ago where the car rolled and one of the occupants died. He wasn’t driving and was lucky to survive but required major surgery to fix several broken bones in his shoulder. I’m sure my friend’s experience triggered my dream about a slow-motion car crash, and the dream is not a representation of my life 30 years after leaving school.

As I look back over the 30 years, I find myself asking about the significant achievements in my life. What constitutes a significant achievement? Is it simply making it here alive? This is a hard question to answer, and I think many people look back at their life and ask the same question? I am tempted to pick out the high points on the graph of experiences, but ultimately, what makes life meaningful?

Is it the grind and suffering in exchange for the brief and elusive highs? Nothing achieved is worth anything if it comes easy. Raising children is a hard grind, yet it was the most common discussion point of the old boys evening. 

My takeaway – keep grinding. The meaning is in the grind.

   

Self-confidence. The more I write and publish, the better I feel about what I write. It is a self-reinforcing cycle. The key is repetition. Just like a weightlifter, you must do the reps; there is no shortcut.

Procrastination. I'll do it later. Tomorrow is another day; I'll do it then. I can't think of anything to write, maybe if I come back later, I'll think of something. These are the thoughts that prevent action. Action breeds more action. Just do something to get over the inertia. After that, it will flow. I experience this every day. 

Generating ideas. Ideas are all around us if we are open to seeing them. The more I write, the more I see. It is like a storage tank. As I write, I make space for more ideas to fill up the tank. If I stop writing, then there is no space for new ideas. It's counterintuitive. 

Perfectionism. I have never had this problem. 80% is good enough. Getting the last 20% right takes too much time, and the return is not worth the effort. There is always someone who will point out where you went wrong in the last 20%. Use that feedback rather than burning energy trying to see it yourself.

Distractions. Distraction and procrastination are best friends. Turn your email off, leave your phone in the room next door. Block out the time in your diary. No, another cup of coffee will not help the creative flow. Get the fingers moving on the keyboard, and the flow will come. It works this way every time.

Over editing. Was it a "glorious" morning for a run or an "awesome" morning? Which sounds better? Mostly, it doesn't matter. What matters most is the overall theme and message of the work. Is it resonating with the audience? I am trying to find my groove. As much as I write for joy, my ego wants feedback from an article that resonates with the audience. I am often surprised.

Where to publish? Publish everywhere! Substack, Medium, Linked-In, Facebook, Twitter and my email list. Feedback, feedback, and more feedback. What works, what doesn't. What hits the emotional connection? It's a data collection game. More data improves my writing.

Consistency. Every publication is like spinning the wheel of fortune - the more spins, the more chance for wins. The habit of writing every day is like running every day. I do it to get fit. Mentally and physically. I've become obsessive about fitness. I think it is an age thing. I feel like I am running out of time!

 

We took a breather at the top of Jan Smuts Drive. While not the highest point in Johannesburg, it isn't far of at 1,728 metres above sea level. It is a short reprieve down the hill past KPMG, and then just like the frog crossing the river, we dodged the passing cars as we crossed Empire Road. Another grind up past Wits University to 1,755 meters. More height, more climbing points.

Left into Ameshoff Street, past Liberty Life and then right into Biccard Street. The last of the leafy, quiet, smooth tar streets before the real games begin.

As we made our way over the train tracks, past the Queen Elizabeth Bridge, the top of the Carlton Centre appears off to the left amongst the other city high risers. We played chicken with a few taxis as we ran down Rissik Street past City Hall. Then a left turn into Main Street where the wide-open space of Gandhi Square feels like a relief. Time for a walk and a photo. This is the halfway point.

If you have made it this far, the route back out of the city is where all the big points are scored. Time to concentrate! North into Polly and then a left Turn into Lillian Ngoyi Street. It is a one-way heading East, and it is a four-lane barrage of taxis heading straight at us as we run West. Wow, this is dodgem cars at its best. Kerbs, people, potholes, running water, dirt, garbage, shouting, whistling, left, right, stop, go. Don't get left behind. Right turn into Klein, past the Noord Street taxi rank, the smell of fresh vetkoek, the oncoming assault of vehicles and people continues. Taxi stops, a door opens, dozens spill out. Hop to the right, find a piece of sidewalk, keep going. It's uphill now, past Joubert Park, which looks like a minefield. Dead ahead is Hillbrow Clinic, anyone wounded?

Running up Hospital Street is a steep climb towards the Old Fort and Constitutional Hill. The adrenaline rush is over, the streets are quiet, and we make our way past the City Council. This is the highest point on the route at 1,775 meters. Now it is a flat-out gallop north. All that is left is to navigate our way down the mineshaft of Westcliff stairs.

We duck through the palisade fence gate into Pallinghurst Road and make our way past the Hurbert Baker architecture of the Hope School on our way to the stairs. At the bottom of the stair, the Drakensburg pony fever is full-on. The smell of coffee entices the young colts to show their speed. It is flat out to the end at Croft & Co.

Heeeha, go baby! The last one home pays for coffee. Don't slip on the Jacaranda flowers.

On the downhill run from Aukland Park, the route joins the spruit just below Emmarentia Dam after running down the “mine shaft” that is Hill Road.

The route winds its way through the Willows next to the Emmerentia Scout Hall and over Victory Road into Victory Park. It is a speedy descent to Delta Park and the refreshment table at the Conrad Road parking lot, marking the 10km point.

I was chasing a fast crew from Tyrone Harriers. We paused briefly for a slug or water at the refreshment table, and then we were off. The next leg is past the Old Parks Sports Club and on to the William Nicol and Republic Road intersection.

Unfortunately, the route leaves the spruit for the section through to Peter Place to avoid the dodgy charterers that inhabit this stretch of the spruit. The next landmark is River Club golf course. Back on the spruit the route closely follows the river under the Ballyclare bridge and on to the Bryanston Scout Hall.

Time for a dose of sugar! A cold Coke in the shade at the scout hall water table makes for a pleasant pause. My strategy of “go until you blow” was still working. I felt like I had plenty of voooma left in my legs for the next section to the Riverside Shopping Centre.

The route ducks under the bridge at Bryanston Drive and connects with Bryanston parkrun route. This is the last of the downhill—next stop, Cowley Road bridge.

At the last refreshment station before the uphill slog to Rivonia Road, I filled my mouth with a handful of Jelly Tots. Another sugar dose for the last push. 4 km to go. I was chasing a sub-2-hour time at a pace of 4:55 a kilometre. Sadly, this was the end of the trail section along the spruit. Tar and kerb hopping from here on.

Cowley Road becomes 12th Avenue and crosses over Rivonia Road. That’s a long climb! Then it’s down through the dip and up to Bowling Avenue. Wow, steeper than I remember. Through the gate onto the golf course. Uphill all the way to the green lawns in front of the clubhouse. Made it, with no blowout!

What a fantastic morning out. The Braamfontein Spruit represents a snaking green ribbon that is a beautiful gift for those who enjoy the outdoors. Cyclists, runners, and walkers, two and four-legged, all enjoy this beautiful lifestyle asset.

Some areas are well maintained; others are downright dodgy and unsafe. That is the story of Johannesburg.

Henry Ford, the father of the assembly line and mass production, made the motor vehicle available to the average middle-class American.

Ford and Epictetus were onto the same thing, at different times, from different perspectives. Both these men identified the human problem of the ego. Although not expressly stated, they saw that thinking that you know something was a sure way to close oneself off to the possibility of being wrong.

Mark Twain was the pen name of Samuel Longhorn Clemens, the author of The Adventures of Huckleberry Fin. Twain's was admired for his wit and satire. Twain was born shortly after an appearance of Halley's Comet. He predicted that his death would be on the next sighting. He died 75 years later, the day after Halley's Comet closest approach to Earth.

Twain observed the same folly of human behaviour that Ford and Epictetus saw. That of being convinced of what we know to be true.

It appears that those who claim to have the answers and are all knowing, are exactly who these men were speaking of. Those who declare that the "science is settled" are the new age priests who display their ignorance. They are the preachers of a new religious dogma. 

It is more important than ever not to accept the words of a so-called expert. Question everything and remain curious.

My secret sauce is the SCARF technique. I lower my Status so that students are open to connecting and trusting that I am on their side. I provide Certainty about the framework of the course and what students are required to do. I give students Autonomy to choose how they want to learn and the format they wish to submit assignments. I make sure that I Relate to students by listening and understanding where they are on their life’s learning journey. Often the job of a lecturer is to listen rather than lecture. Most importantly, I treat students Fairly.

I read about the SCARF method several years ago, but it has taken me many years to refine how to use the process well. Students are mostly unaware that I am using my “secret powers” to bring them over to my side. I do it so that they are less anxious and, therefore, more open to learning.

My teaching process is to use empirical financial data, dressed up in pretty graphs, to tell stories about how the world of business finance shows up in everyday life. My primary emphasis is to discuss what it means for companies to create value and that every person in an organisation is responsible for value creation.

Once students connect to how they can contribute to value creation, then learning about the financial reporting and performance of a business becomes exciting. No longer are they learning accounting, now they are learning about value creation.

When students understand that it is not my intention to turn them into accountants but rather give them the skills to understand the dynamics of business performance, then the numbers take on a whole new meaning.

My book depicted above covers the content and the learning journey that I take students on. While I teach several essential theory aspects, I give students plenty of time to complete in-class exercises that help them put the theory into practice. It is in the practice where students learn. Those who embrace this and do as many practise exercises as possible can embed the principles in their brain like well-worn game paths through the bushveld. Those that embrace the process and do the practice end up learning and retaining new skills. That’s the definition of acing business finance.

Being a lecturer is not about being the source of knowledge. It is about connecting with students so that they are open to receiving the knowledge and using it in a framework that makes sense in their lives.

If you want to take the path of the entrepreneur who builds a brand and/or a business, here are four crucial points to consider:

1. Consistency is a superpower – show up every day

2. Be ready to fail often and start over as many times as it takes to be successful

3. It can be very lonely, find support in a mentor, a coach, or a business partner

4. Don’t take yourself too seriously

The funniest and most ironic thing about hyperinflation and capital gains is that the more inflation there is, the more capital gains taxes to collect. If capital gain taxes are targeted at the rich because they have too much money, the best way to make the rich poor is with inflation. Inflation is the hidden tax that makes everyone poor. 

No doubt, the plan is to tax nominal gains in capital assets. What if the nominal gain in assets is less than the level of hyperinflation? By conventional measures, your real return would be negative, and you would be worse off. “But we will tax you anyway because you are a billionaire”, is the message they want the middle-class masses to hear.

There are many Venezuelans and Zimbabweans who became billionaires in their local currency. Hyperinflation has a knack for doing that. But it is all hot air.

There is no need to get our knickers in a knot. Neither of these things will happen. 

I suspect that Dorsey doesn’t know much about money supply, or how Dollars are created. Thirteen years of quantitative easing hasn’t produced a sniff of inflation. It is all just a sophisticated asset swap on the balance sheets of the banks. If the banks can’t lend the money, then there is no excessive money supply to create inflation.

Lastly, the one thing about rich billionaires is that they know how to hold onto their money. There isn’t a tax that the wealthy haven’t worked out how to avoid. 

Chris asked Joe, "What is the Antithesis of Exceptional?", Joe's response was to say that he had never thought of it from that perspective. It got him thinking. This is how Joe answered…

The antithesis of exceptional is:

1. Lack of curiosity about the world and other people

2. A know-it-all attitude

3. No aspiration for lifelong learning

4. Inflexible in ideology and thinking

5. Not open to finding better solutions to problems

6. Unwilling to compromise

7. No ability to empathise with others

8. Not willing to work with others

I would add a few more characteristics that are the antithesis of exceptional. These have become evident in "leaders" who have supposedly been responsible for leading the public health response to the pandemic. The following behaviours/statements are the antithesis of exceptional:

Stating that "the science is settled". This statement is designed to shut down the voices of those who disagree, and it displays complete ignorance of the scientific process.

Cancelling the voices of professionals who use facts to undermine the narrative. Major platforms like Twitter, YouTube, Corporate Media, and Facebook have arbitrarily shut down the dissenting voices of those who disagree with politicians' authoritarian command and control dictates.

Using antagonising language to be divisive and cause division between different groups of people. These are the actions of "leaders" who want to create division and emphasise "the other", and act as the saviour of a supposedly victimised group.

As a South African looking around at those elected to lead our country, all I see is the antithesis of exceptional. It is as if political power attracts the opposite of what South Africa needs to grow and thrive.

This is disappointing considering what we achieved in the first decade post-1994. Perhaps it's time to stop being complicit, discard what is not working for us, and vote out the trash.

On several occasions, after trading live money for a while and only breaking even, less trading fees, I switched back to sim trading. Every time I switched back to sim trading, I immediately traded better and got my win rate up to 60%. That gave me the confidence to trade live again. Back live, my win rate dropped back to 50%. I didn't want to believe that there was a difference in my trading patterns because I switched between a live account and a sim account. But there was. This was the truth that I didn't want to face. This was the lie I told myself.

The more I traded Oil futures and only won half my trades, the more I looked for excuses about how the market had changed, and the trading strategy that I was using was no longer valid. I kept detailed records of my trades. I even recorded when I made bad trades. What I wasn't recording was why I made bad trades. I realised that I wasn't earning a sufficient payoff for the time spent trading. I desperately wanted to be a successful trader, and my ego prevented me from looking too closely at why I was making bad trades. Eventually, I had to put my ego aside and record what happened when I made bad trades. This is what I learned…

I learned that my natural decision-making process is slow. I like to consider things, turn them over, explore the risk and the opportunities. I like to put ideas in the "pot" and let them stew. To be a successful commodities trader you need to think and react fast. When the trade opportunity shows up and the indicators signal to buy or sell, you need to pull the trigger quickly. I missed many trades, then I felt FOMO and took marginal trades to make up for missing a trade. Trading a sim account, I noticed that I had less emotional attachment to the trades. In a sim account, there is no risk. In a live account, the "fear of loss" created emotion. My slow decision-making process and fear of loss in live trading combined to make me an average 50/50 trader.

The cost to me was mostly time. I spent a considerable amount of time learning to trade and trading only to find out how average I was. In hindsight, it might have been better for me to lose a whole bunch of money quickly. I might have stopped trading sooner. But then, I would not have learned and understood how my decision-making process works. I've learned that I am more suited to managing my investment portfolio, where I seldom sell and hold most investments for a long time—plenty of time to think.

The shortage of containers in Asia has meant that shipping rates have gone through the roof. Since the publication of this graph, rates have more than doubled from the already high levels in December 2020. Shipping a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles cost $10,898 as of 21 October 2021. To ship a container in the other direction, from Los Angeles to Shanghai, costs only $1,315. Similarly, from Shanghai to New York costs $13,939 and from New York to Shanghai cost $2,771. The price differentials reflect the apparent demand and supply dynamics of shipping containers.

There is no short-term fix for this problem. It could take more than a year to overcome the imbalance in the system. The reality is that a mountain of empty containers needs to make its way back to Asia, and no one likes shipping empty containers.

The implications for South Africa are increased shipping costs and shortages of key imports from China. In 2020, South Africa imported $3.7 billion of electronic equipment from China and $2.98 billion of machinery and mechanical equipment. These two categories represent only two-thirds of the total imports from China.

The world discarded its pandemic response protocols and took its lead from China. The West followed the approach of the communist command and control model. The result has disrupted markets across the world. In time, evidence will prove the folly of lockdowns; whether we will admit to that folly is another thing.

My visits to see Chris at his home near Hartbeespoort dam have been an opportunity to learn more and more about the craft of financial data modelling while at the same time learning more and more about myself. The significance of making the drive out to the dam means that the occasions are more than just visiting a friend like any other everyday visit. The visits are infrequent and require the investment of effort and time, making them memorable, meaningful, and more rewarding.

The price I pay is to pose for Chris’s pictures of me that are mostly very flattering. However, from time to time, they are not. This time, Chris did his best to make me look like a greedy pig with two ice creams and two cokes waiting in line for my consumption. We spent much of the afternoon cycling around the golf course estate and racing some local Strava segments. We had been riding so hard we needed a short stop for refreshments and sustenance.

David Whyte’s essay on Friendship says, “the ultimate touchstone of friendship is not improvement, neither of the self nor the other, the ultimate touchstone is witness, the privilege of having been seen by someone and the equal privilege of being granted the sight of the essence of another, to have walked with them and to have believed in them, and sometimes just to have accompanied them for however brief a span, on a journey impossible to accomplish alone”.

There is so much in my life that I could not have accomplished without a handful of close friends who I think of when I read these beautiful words by David Whyte. Chris is one of those friends. He has seen my essence and I, his. I recognise the privilege of having such a friend.

While I have indulged myself in sharing the joys of my friendship with Chris, my intention is to give you pause for thought about the people in your life whom your accomplishments would be impossible without.

The contrasts in the city are mind-boggling. There are the obvious areas of squalor, and then just one block away, it is like being in a pristine neighbourhood. The streets are full of trash, running water, potholes, and people going in every direction. Then around the next bend, it's quiet, no taxis, clean roads, and paved sidewalks. Even the street art changes. Filthy graffiti in most areas and then over the hill and just past the shiny buildings of the Constitutional Court, the art changes to beautiful murals with cryptic messages. We could not resist stopping for a photo in front of this one.

The post photo conversation was naturally filled with prophetic insights about what it means to put our leaders in rice. It was suggested that perhaps the paint for the artwork was sponsored by Tastic rice. Another suggestion was that we should put our leaders in ICE. That conjures thoughts of cryogenic freezing. We wouldn't miss them, and we would probably be better off if we did freeze them out for a while.

My mind was captured by the logical advice of using the absorbent qualities of rice to dry out a cell phone when it has been accidentally dropped in the toilet. How could we apply the same principle to our leaders? The redistribution and socialist ideologies definitely need to be extracted from the minds of those in leadership positions. We would all be better off for that. Could the rice help with that?

The suggestion of "drying them out" and "turning them into dried fruit" attracted smiles and giggles amongst the runners. The conversation was later re-ignited over coffee as we shared our photos and reflected on the joy of running freely in our city. Oh, what an awesome time NOT to be living in Australia. I bet they wish that they could drown some of their leaders in an oversized pot of rice.

The favourite part of my morning outing in the city was the fast downhill running on the way home. The beautiful, mottled sun through the leaves of the Plain trees on Tyronne Avenue and the sounds of fast footsteps and heavy breathing as we raced home for coffee was fantastic. It makes putting up with crappy leaders and crazy ideology almost bearable.

To go with this fleeting existence, Bryson points out that the odds of your existence are so minute that it is a miracle that you even exist. The following quote describes what your ancestors had to navigate for you to arrive here.

“Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result -- eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly -- in you.”

When I think of my existence in this context, I am confronted by cognitive dissonance. The dissonance is about how valuable my life is since the miracle of my existence is so incredible. Adjacent to the miracle is the insignificance of my time here when measured against 4,500 billion years.

How best does one do justice to the miracle of existence while considering the insignificance of our exceedingly short time on Earth? This is a question for each of us to answer if you have the privilege to consider it. For many, the challenge to survive may not afford them the luxury of time and space to consider these existential questions.

I often get lost in the hectic nature of life. The stress of earning a living and providing for today's needs and what might be needed in the future can be overwhelming. The pressure of a deadline and the consequences of missing it seem so stupidly laughable in the face of our ultimate insignificance. We impose these arbitrary constraints on ourselves, which appear so immaterial when seen through the lens of a multi-billion-year timeline. Let this not be an excuse to break the agreements you make with others because no one will care in the billion years. Let this instead be a perspective that you consider when you make your agreements. Let it also be a consideration with whom you make your agreements.

Embracing your insignificance is the realisation that, in the long run, absolutely nothing matters! Therefore, in the short run, choose to do things worthy of giving you joy when you do them

You may have to first get your mind around the principle of digital art having value. Just in Time Article #91 covered this concept.

My wife is an artist. This cute doggie is an example of her artwork. It is a picture of an iced biscuit. Yes, you can eat it. Not the picture, of course, but the biscuit is made to be eaten. My wife’s client sent her a picture of their dog and asked her to make a set of biscuits depicting the dog. The glasses are artistic license. If you go to Gillie’s Biccies you can see the full array of my wife’s beautiful edible artwork.

My hypothesis is that the novelty and creativity of biscuit art have value. It has value as a biscuit, but does it have value as NFT artwork. There is only one way to find out: to create a digital image of the biscuit, mint an NFT that is attached to the image and list it on the market.

There are millions of digital images for sale on OpenSea and although everyone is unique, many don’t sell or even attract a bid. Lack of liquidity is a problem, but this market will grow and develop in time, and the winners and losers will emerge. It appears that NFT artwork is like sand on a beach. At a distance, the grains of sand all look the same. Occasionally, while walking on the beach, one stumbles across something quite special, like a beautiful shell or a smoothed piece of sand glass. That is the piece that you pick up and put in your pocket to show to someone later. The analogy here is that one needs to be adding to the beach. Many will add sand, some will add stones, others will add shells, and occasionally something completely unexpected will appear. Only time and the market will reveal the value.

There are a few pieces to the NFT puzzle. OpenSea is a platform or the market on which NFTs are bought and sold. You need to own some Ethereum and have some Ethereum in a wallet connected to OpenSea. MetaMask is the most popular wallet. Several YouTube videos will show you how to open these accounts and connect your wallet. When listing your first NFT for sale on OpenSea, you will discover “Gas Tax”. Gas Tax is a once-off fee for a first-time seller and buyer. It is not unusual to buy your first NFT for $50 (denominated in Ethereum) and pay a Gas Tax of as much as $100. The fee is variable and based on transaction speed, depending on the time of day or how busy the platform is. If you use OpenSea to do a once-off low-value transaction, the Gas Tax will exceed the transaction costs. The incentive is to create many NFTs so that ultimately the Gas Tax isn’t material when amortised across a collection of NFTs.

Remember that an NFT is subject to variance in the value of the digital artwork itself and the volatility of the USD price of Ethereum. The volatility of cryptocurrencies, in general, will impact the enthusiasm for NFTs. The winners in NFTs will be those that can play the long game and develop a reputation of quality, durability, celebrity, authority, and scarcity. All the attributes that matter in the tangible world of art will matter in the digital art world of NFTs.

The irony is that the ANC government operates from a socialist ideology. The Nation Democratic Revolution (NDR) is the ANC’s playbook to achieving centralised state power and control. The NDR is the ANC’s version of totalitarianism. The economic data reveals the damage that is being done to South Africa because of the ANC’s destructive policies.

In South Africa, the 1980s was at the height of Apartheid and international sanctions. The Nationalist government was under severe economic pressure to abandon its race-based policies. Could it be that South Africa has come a full circle? The ANC replaced one set of race-based policies with another. Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) was intended to be the solution to correcting the injustices of the past. The reality is that BEE has only served the elite. BEE has created a smokescreen of cover for extortion and theft. Under the guise of “transformation”, the ANC has set South Africa on a path back to the dark days of the 1980s. There is another irony here. The ANC has repeatedly told its constituency that they mustn’t vote for the Democratic Alliance (DA) because the DA will bring back Apartheid. It appears that the ANC has done an excellent job of returning South Africa to the dire economic circumstances that were brought about because of Apartheid.

To quote another Orwell novel by the title of Animal Farm, Napoleon says to the animals, “you are better off than you were under Mr Jones”. Yes, South Africa is a better place now than it was under Apartheid. Unfortunately, when measured against a standard of economic wellbeing, it is not better off.